The overall media seems to be running the story that Democrats are headed to lose control of the Senate and House to the Republicans and that outcome is all but certain.  It’s reminiscent of the stories that John McCain was on the verge of victory over Barrack Obama during the last election.  Looking back on the election it is was clear that John McCain did not have a realistic chance of winning, which even McCain’s campaign manager Steve Schmidt acknowledged they knew during the course of the campaign.

The Senate and House elections are very uncertain at this point.  It’s very hard to predict what the outcomes may be when we don’t know the full extent of the retirements and in a lot of cases we don’t know who the parties will pick to run for the seats.  Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has an estimation Democrats could even pick up several seats in the Senate during the 2010 election.  Although, it is most likely they may lose several seats and could lose their 60 seat advantage.  He points out the Senators up for re-election in 2010 were elected in 2004, which was a good year for Republicans.  So even if this year is favorable to the Republicans, they may end up with similar results during this election cycle leaving the number of seats in each party fairly stable.  The elections in the House may not be as favorable.

Currently, in the House 14 Republicans have decided to not run for re-election and only 10 Democrats have decided to retire.  Six Republicans have decided to retire and not run for re-election in the Senate.  There have only been two Democrats that have decided to not run.  Most of the media stories are suggesting that because two Democrats in the Senate are not seeking re-election that will somehow not be favorable to the Democrats.  It could be the opposite.  Chris Dodd has been losing in the polls to any Republican running against him.  His retirement will pave the way for a new Democrat to challenge the Republicans for that seat without having to overcome increasing negative approval ratings.  His potential replacement Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) already appears to be leading Republican challengers in the latest polls.

While the situation in the House doesn’t appear to look as favorable for Democrats, they do have one huge advantage: money.  The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) that provides money for Republican candidates running for House seats has “$4.3 million in cash and $2 million in debt” according to the hill.  That’s approximately $200,000 if they were only defending approximately 11 seats up for re-election, which is not much when it can take close to a million dollars to win one seat.  They are defending 40 or more seats.  The Democrats have three times as much money to use for these races.  There are other factors that may be in play that we just don’t know what impact they will have such as the Tea Party movement and if they will harm or help the Republicans.  The Democrats also expect an approval rating increase once health care passed, which could leave them at a slight advantage.